Excluding Asia-Pacific, the global cigarette market is forecast to contract by more than a quarter. Cigarettes markets in Western Europe, North America and Australasia are forecast to contract by over 50%, with a similar fall in smoking prevalence.
In the long term, only two regions are forecast to record cigarette market growth in volume. The story of the next 40 years is a major shift from developed to developing markets: the global cigarettes market is only forecast to fall in volume by 2%. However, excluding Asia-Pacific, it will fall by a quarter. The big story is substantial falls in smoking prevalence in developing markets as consumers give up and the number of young persons taking up the habit reduce due to societal pressures.
The US, Japan and Germany will record massive volume falls of over 50%, due to falling prevalence, though with the rate of decline in prevalence slowing due to a higher proportion of hardcore smokers. Some major markets classified as developing – Turkey, South Korea, Brazil, Ukraine – will also record major falls based on current trends in prevalence. Legislation is hardening in many developing markets. In South Korea, smokers will be fined WON100,000 if they are caught smoking in central Seoul from June 2011. China will come to account for half of the global market by volume by 2050, although growth will slow. Other markets recording significant growth between 2010 and 2050, based on population growth and smoking culture, are Indonesia, India, Vietnam, the Philippines and Egypt.
The report, The Future of Tobacco global briefing, offers an insight into to the size and shape of the Tobacco market, highlighting major industry trends and categories as well as the factors affecting operating environment. It identifies the leading companies and brands, offers impartial, strategic analysis of key factors influencing the market – be they new product developments, legislative restrictions or pricing influences. Forecasts illustrate how the market is set to change and where it is headed.
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